Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 141.445225 169.693491 204.232206 250.288406 311.217779 3.907381e+02 5.053006e+02
2025-03-09 104.017637 135.146461 177.713397 242.375331 342.394014 4.994554e+02 7.843003e+02
2025-03-16 82.844527 113.358444 158.317047 233.164334 363.299683 6.005601e+02 1.129117e+03
2025-03-23 75.173517 107.923697 159.710942 254.099565 439.500730 8.390273e+02 1.988741e+03
2025-03-30 66.447841 98.708395 152.397368 257.136119 483.626234 1.045669e+03 3.105924e+03
2025-04-06 60.744196 93.085631 149.515331 266.975153 546.475573 1.352149e+03 5.297524e+03
2025-04-13 54.417247 85.268694 140.977235 262.672204 574.485404 1.590978e+03 8.109875e+03
2025-04-20 52.222027 84.236335 144.717784 285.755761 686.770420 2.260123e+03 1.855223e+04
2025-04-27 49.892091 82.540175 146.734670 305.597728 804.335759 3.174345e+03 4.929329e+04
2025-05-04 47.418767 80.175317 146.865299 320.906999 920.167871 4.379169e+03 1.665293e+05
2025-05-11 44.777446 77.101243 144.876073 330.061498 1022.885857 5.859686e+03 8.659140e+05
2025-05-18 42.063640 73.527646 141.139636 333.238657 1106.415280 7.579167e+03 1.507540e+07
2025-05-25 38.745202 68.496783 133.626285 324.304148 1137.376609 9.080606e+03 NaN
2025-06-01 35.841036 64.029958 126.815663 315.914226 1168.650812 1.094657e+04 NaN
2025-06-08 33.073405 59.560577 119.345219 303.412562 1171.178516 1.256662e+04 NaN
2025-06-15 32.651823 60.051298 124.110524 333.404539 1450.808486 2.395554e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 31.088308 57.862322 121.733943 337.792872 1582.498427 3.560734e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 30.047557 56.723605 121.915076 351.966924 1811.108766 6.444652e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 28.349532 53.921055 117.221148 345.764193 1875.356145 8.992617e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 28.114515 54.463691 121.785481 379.193630 2362.078987 3.069392e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 27.671949 54.466481 124.852244 408.208871 2904.482397 1.688309e+06 NaN
2025-07-27 27.032762 53.926299 126.257039 430.767132 3465.190813 3.561814e+07 NaN
2025-08-03 26.194995 52.814455 125.771437 444.325896 3972.104958 NaN NaN